Forecasting climate change

The UK Climate Impact Programme (UKCIP) produces climate change projections for the UK, underpinned by a unique methodology developed by the Met Office. This methodology reflects scientists’ best understanding of the way the climate system operates and how this might change in the future. This information should be used by built environment professionals to identify the risks and opportunities that developments may be exposed to and when.

The key climate projections over the next 50 or more years for the UK are:

• summers will become hotter and drier;
• winters will become milder and wetter;
• soils will become drier on average;
• snowfall and the number of very cold days will decrease;
• sea levels will rise; and
• storms, heavy or extreme rainfall, and extreme winds will become more frequent.

These changes are set to have substantial effects on the construction and maintenance of buildings and the natural environment. For example, drier and hotter summers will lead to more incidences of heat damage to structures and equipment; more frequent heavy rainfall events will result in increased flooding in low-lying areas; and increased variability in soil moisture levels will lead to more subsidence. These impacts will cause disruption to businesses and increased operational, maintenance and emergency repair costs.